SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 74.47%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Braga had a probability of 10.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 3-0 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.66%), while for a Braga win it was 1-2 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Braga |
74.47% ( -0.25) | 14.93% ( 0.19) | 10.61% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 56.92% ( -0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.47% ( -0.82) | 29.53% ( 0.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.38% ( -1) | 50.62% ( 1) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.28% ( -0.23) | 6.72% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 75.14% ( -0.62) | 24.86% ( 0.63) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.02% ( -0.49) | 38.99% ( 0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.29% ( -0.47) | 75.71% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Braga |
| 2-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 8.6% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.04)1-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.24)4-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 3.13% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 2.95% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.08)6-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.04)5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.06)6-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.06)Other @ 4.29% Total : 74.47% | 1-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.24% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.21% Total : 14.93% | 1-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 2.47% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.53% Total : 10.61% |
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