SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 41.88%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
41.88% ( 0.2) | 25.55% ( -0.01) | 32.56% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 54.99% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.13% ( -0) | 48.87% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.03% ( -0) | 70.96% ( 0) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.81% ( 0.1) | 23.18% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.93% ( 0.15) | 57.07% ( -0.15) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.59% ( -0.13) | 28.41% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.84% ( -0.16) | 64.16% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 9.63% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.08% Total : 41.88% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.57% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.55% | 0-1 @ 8.29% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.7% Total : 32.56% |
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