SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.32%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 23.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.95%) and 1-2 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.53%), while for a Montevideo City Torque win it was 1-0 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo City Torque | Draw | Penarol |
23.72% ( 0.06) | 26.96% ( 0.03) | 49.32% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 45.03% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.03% ( -0.05) | 58.97% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.55% ( -0.04) | 79.45% ( 0.04) |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.28% ( 0.03) | 40.72% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.69% ( 0.03) | 77.31% ( -0.02) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.96% ( -0.06) | 24.04% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.69% ( -0.09) | 58.31% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo City Torque | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 8.8% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.63% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.95% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.69% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.2% 3-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.27% Total : 23.72% | 1-1 @ 12.53% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.79% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.01% ( -0)Other @ 0.62% Total : 26.95% | 0-1 @ 13.95% 0-2 @ 9.95% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.73% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.25% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.91% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.41% Total : 49.32% |
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