Union SG have provided themselves with an excellent chance of continuing their fairytale adventure in the Europa League this season by drawing away from home in the first leg, but we can envisage it coming to an end on Thursday.
Leverkusen's form has been increasingly impressive under the tutelage of Alonso, and we expect them to seize the moment and keep their hopes of competing in the Champions League next season well and truly alive.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 45.46%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Union SG win was 2-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
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5.24) 
