Valencia have not beaten Rayo at home in La Liga since November 2018, and it would not be a surprise to see a draw this weekend, but Los Che will enter this match in the better form, and we fancy the hosts to secure a narrow victory against Perez's team.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 37.93%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (11.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
0.11) 
-0.03) 
