SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 37.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.84%) and 2-0 (5.04%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
40.01% ( 0.35) | 22.68% ( 0.43) | 37.3% ( -0.77) |
| Both teams to score 66.57% ( -1.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.76% ( -2.27) | 34.24% ( 2.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.86% ( -2.61) | 56.14% ( 2.61) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.19% ( -0.81) | 17.81% ( 0.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.47% ( -1.42) | 48.53% ( 1.43) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.99% ( -1.34) | 19% ( 1.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.44% ( -2.28) | 50.56% ( 2.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 8.37% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.52)2-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.32)3-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4% ( -0.19)3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.06% Total : 40.01% | 1-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 6.95% ( -0.14)0-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.38)3-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.68% | 1-2 @ 8.05% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 5.62% ( 0.42)0-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 4.46% ( -0.16)2-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.25)0-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.85% ( -0.15)2-4 @ 1.6% ( -0.18)0-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.06)3-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.65% Total : 37.3% |
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