SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 43.45%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.32%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
43.45% ( 0.25) | 22.71% ( 0.11) | 33.84% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 65.67% ( -0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.89% ( -0.65) | 35.11% ( 0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.89% ( -0.72) | 57.11% ( 0.73) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.23% ( -0.16) | 16.77% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.29% ( -0.29) | 46.71% ( 0.29) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.9% ( -0.49) | 21.1% ( 0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.07% ( -0.76) | 53.93% ( 0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 2-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.48% Total : 43.45% | 1-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.71% | 1-2 @ 7.65% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.5% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.54% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.76% Total : 33.84% |
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