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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 48.68%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.01%) and 1-3 (5.96%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne City |
29.61% ( -0.11) | 21.71% ( 0.13) | 48.68% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 67.26% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.85% ( -0.73) | 32.15% ( 0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.27% ( -0.85) | 53.73% ( 0.86) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78% ( -0.43) | 22% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.69% ( -0.66) | 55.31% ( 0.66) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.23% ( -0.27) | 13.77% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.92% ( -0.54) | 41.08% ( 0.54) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 6.89% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 3.47% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 1.75% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.37% Total : 29.61% | 1-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.48% Total : 21.71% | 1-2 @ 9.02% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 6.01% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 5.96% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.95% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 4.51% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.93% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 2.95% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 2.24% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.95% 1-5 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)3-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.86% Total : 48.68% |
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