SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.4%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
27.62% ( -0.41) | 22.98% ( -0.01) | 49.4% ( 0.42) |
| Both teams to score 60.95% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.23% ( -0.26) | 39.77% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.87% ( -0.27) | 62.13% ( 0.27) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.85% ( -0.42) | 27.16% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.45% ( -0.55) | 62.56% ( 0.55) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.67% ( 0.06) | 16.33% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.08% ( 0.1) | 45.92% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 5.78% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.98% Total : 27.62% | 1-1 @ 10.47% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.98% | 1-2 @ 9.49% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 7.28% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 5.73% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 4.4% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.6% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.99% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.49% Total : 49.4% |
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