Given the level of disappointment last weekend, it remains to be seen how Lille will react to having gone so close to causing the upset in Paris. Nevertheless, boasting a strong home record in comparison to Brest's poor efforts on the road, this should prove to be a comfortable evening for Fonseca's side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 71.2%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Brest had a probability of 10.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.47%), while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (3.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
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