With the prospect of Lorient deploying a low block to work around Innocent's absence, a PSG side enduring their worst spell of the season cannot expect to break down this dogged Merlus defence at will.
However, Pochettino's side rarely slip up at home in the league, and while they will need to be patient for their opportunities against Pelissier's side, they should take a couple of them to return to winning ways.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 83.29%. A draw had a probability of 11.9% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 4.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.25%) and 1-0 (10.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.59%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (2.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
