As Inter have conceded 15 goals in their last seven league matches, their second away win of the MLS season is surely not on the agenda this weekend.
St Louis have won seven of their 11 games at home this season, and we expect them to be too strong for Miami here.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 47.73%. A win for Inter Miami had a probability of 28.03% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.38%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Inter Miami win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
2.06) 
-0.78) 
