SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 49.25%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 28.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.16%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Toronto in this match.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
49.25% ( 0.18) | 22.42% ( -0.04) | 28.32% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 63.59% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.45% ( 0.11) | 36.55% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.3% ( 0.12) | 58.69% ( -0.13) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.8% ( 0.1) | 15.19% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.18% ( 0.19) | 43.81% ( -0.2) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.98% ( -0.03) | 25.02% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.31% ( -0.05) | 59.68% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toronto | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
| 2-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.16% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.75% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.08% Total : 49.25% | 1-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.48% 0-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.88% ( 0)Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.42% | 1-2 @ 6.87% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 2.55% Total : 28.33% |
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