Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ebbsfleet win with a probability of 45.58%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ebbsfleet win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ebbsfleet would win this match.
