Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Linfield win with a probability of 67.8%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 13.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Linfield win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.33%) and 1-2 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%), while for a Carrick Rangers win it was 1-0 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Linfield would win this match.
