Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley Under-23s win with a probability of 46.29%. A win for Aston Villa Under-23s had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.72%) and 3-1 (5.68%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Burnley Under-23s in this match.
