Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley Under-23s win with a probability of 39.77%. A win for Southampton Under-23s had a probability of 37.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.08%) and 2-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Southampton Under-23s win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Burnley Under-23s in this match.
