Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley Under-23s win with a probability of 45.8%. A win for Sunderland Under-23s had a probability of 31.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley Under-23s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.36%) and 0-2 (5.9%). The likeliest Sunderland Under-23s win was 2-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burnley Under-23s would win this match.
