Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 78.76%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 6.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.85%) and 3-0 (12.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.84%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (2.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
Result | ||
Arsenal | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
78.76% ( 0.61) | 15.03% ( -0.24) | 6.21% ( -0.37) |
Both teams to score 35.18% ( -1.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.57% ( -0.43) | 46.43% ( 0.44) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.29% ( -0.41) | 68.71% ( 0.41) |
Arsenal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.25% ( 0.04) | 9.75% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.55% ( 0.1) | 32.45% ( -0.1) |
Nottingham Forest Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
38.98% ( -1.38) | 61.02% ( 1.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
8.84% ( -0.7) | 91.16% ( 0.7) |
Score Analysis |
Arsenal | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
2-0 @ 16.12% ( 0.36) 1-0 @ 13.85% ( 0.28) 3-0 @ 12.5% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.19) 4-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.11) 6-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.36% Total : 78.75% | 1-1 @ 6.84% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.27% Total : 15.03% | 0-1 @ 2.94% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.12) Other @ 1.58% Total : 6.21% |
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