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Premier League | Gameweek 14
Oct 30, 2022 at 2pm UK
Emirates Stadium
NF

Arsenal
5 - 0
Nott'm Forest

Martinelli (5'), Nelson (49', 52'), Partey (57'), Odegaard (78')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: PSV 2-0 Arsenal
Thursday, October 27 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 1-0 Liverpool
Saturday, October 22 at 12.30pm in Premier League

We said: Arsenal 2-0 Nottingham Forest

Arsenal facing newly-promoted teams at the Emirates usually only ever ends one way, but the fatigued Gunners can take nothing for granted versus a Forest side who are growing in confidence by the week, especially with Arteta's side consistently failing to keep the opposition at bay at home. However, Cooper is yet to find an answer to his side's profligacy on the road, and a return to familiar turf should be the formula for a welcome three points for Arsenal here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 78.76%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 6.21%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.85%) and 3-0 (12.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.84%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (2.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
ArsenalDrawNottingham Forest
78.76% (0.605 0.61) 15.03% (-0.236 -0.24) 6.21% (-0.368 -0.37)
Both teams to score 35.18% (-1.226 -1.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.57% (-0.434 -0.43)46.43% (0.435 0.44)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.29% (-0.411 -0.41)68.71% (0.413 0.41)
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.25% (0.042999999999992 0.04)9.75% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.55% (0.101 0.1)32.45% (-0.099999999999994 -0.1)
Nottingham Forest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
38.98% (-1.377 -1.38)61.02% (1.38 1.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
8.84% (-0.696 -0.7)91.16% (0.697 0.7)
Score Analysis
    Arsenal 78.75%
    Nottingham Forest 6.21%
    Draw 15.03%
ArsenalDrawNottingham Forest
2-0 @ 16.12% (0.36 0.36)
1-0 @ 13.85% (0.28 0.28)
3-0 @ 12.5% (0.29 0.29)
2-1 @ 7.96% (-0.185 -0.19)
4-0 @ 7.28% (0.188 0.19)
3-1 @ 6.18% (-0.132 -0.13)
4-1 @ 3.6% (-0.07 -0.07)
5-0 @ 3.39% (0.093 0.09)
5-1 @ 1.67% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.53% (-0.105 -0.11)
6-0 @ 1.32% (0.039 0.04)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 78.75%
1-1 @ 6.84% (-0.172 -0.17)
0-0 @ 5.95% (0.108 0.11)
2-2 @ 1.97% (-0.139 -0.14)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 15.03%
0-1 @ 2.94% (-0.08 -0.08)
1-2 @ 1.69% (-0.123 -0.12)
Other @ 1.58%
Total : 6.21%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: PSV 2-0 Arsenal
Thursday, October 27 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Southampton 1-1 Arsenal
Sunday, October 23 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 1-0 PSV
Thursday, October 20 at 6pm in Europa League
Last Game: Leeds 0-1 Arsenal
Sunday, October 16 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Bodo/Glimt 0-1 Arsenal
Thursday, October 13 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Arsenal 3-2 Liverpool
Sunday, October 9 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 1-0 Liverpool
Saturday, October 22 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brighton 0-0 Nott'm Forest
Tuesday, October 18 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Wolves 1-0 Nott'm Forest
Saturday, October 15 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 1-1 Aston Villa
Monday, October 10 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Leicester 4-0 Nott'm Forest
Monday, October 3 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-3 Fulham
Friday, September 16 at 8pm in Premier League


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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