SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Everton had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
44.32% ( -0.16) | 23.52% ( -0.02) | 32.16% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 61.96% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.31% ( 0.16) | 39.69% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.96% ( 0.16) | 62.04% ( -0.16) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.75% ( -0) | 18.25% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.7% ( -0) | 49.29% ( 0) |
| Everton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.8% ( 0.17) | 24.2% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.46% ( 0.25) | 58.54% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
| 2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.51% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 6.39% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.19% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.66% Total : 44.32% | 1-1 @ 10.65% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.43% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.42% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 7.56% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.04% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 32.16% |
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