Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 43.3%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Burnley win was 2-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Chelsea |
32.43% (![]() | 24.26% (![]() | 43.3% (![]() |
Both teams to score 59.39% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.88% (![]() | 43.11% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.48% (![]() | 65.51% (![]() |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.31% (![]() | 25.69% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.39% (![]() | 60.6% (![]() |
Chelsea Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.92% (![]() | 20.08% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.69% (![]() | 52.31% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Chelsea |
2-1 @ 7.65% (![]() 1-0 @ 7.01% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 4.76% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 3.47% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.78% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 2.16% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.18% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 0.95% ( ![]() Other @ 2.48% Total : 32.43% | 1-1 @ 11.25% (![]() 2-2 @ 6.14% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 5.16% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.49% ( ![]() Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.26% | 1-2 @ 9.04% (![]() 0-1 @ 8.28% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 6.65% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 4.84% 0-3 @ 3.56% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 3.29% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 1.94% 0-4 @ 1.43% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.32% ( ![]() Other @ 2.97% Total : 43.3% |
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