SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 43.3%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Burnley win was 2-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burnley | Draw | Chelsea |
32.43% ( 0.03) | 24.26% ( -0.01) | 43.3% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 59.39% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.88% ( 0.04) | 43.11% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.48% ( 0.04) | 65.51% ( -0.04) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.31% ( 0.03) | 25.69% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.39% ( 0.05) | 60.6% ( -0.05) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.92% ( 0.01) | 20.08% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.69% ( 0.01) | 52.31% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burnley | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 7.65% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.01% ( -0)2-0 @ 4.76% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.47% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.16% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 2.48% Total : 32.43% | 1-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.26% | 1-2 @ 9.04% ( -0) 0-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.65% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.84% 0-3 @ 3.56% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.29% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.94% 0-4 @ 1.43% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 2.97% Total : 43.3% |
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