SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.62%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Manchester United had a probability of 12.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.78%) and 3-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.89%), while for a Manchester United win it was 1-2 (3.58%). The actual scoreline of 6-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Manchester United |
71.62% ( -0.05) | 15.87% ( 0.02) | 12.52% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 60.06% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.25% ( -0.04) | 28.75% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.33% ( -0.05) | 49.67% ( 0.05) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.92% ( -0.02) | 7.08% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.17% ( -0.05) | 25.82% ( 0.05) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.64% ( 0.01) | 35.36% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.88% ( 0.02) | 72.12% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Manchester United |
| 2-1 @ 9.12% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.78% ( 0)3-1 @ 8.05% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 5.33% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.13% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.19% 5-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.77% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.72% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.47% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.25% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.2% ( -0)4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 3.46% Total : 71.62% | 1-1 @ 6.89% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.74% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0)Other @ 0.28% Total : 15.87% | 1-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.64% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.35% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.24% ( 0)Other @ 2.1% Total : 12.52% |
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