SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 6 | 14 | 14 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Hoffenheim | 6 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Mainz 05 | 6 | -3 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 63.62%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 18.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.56%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.61%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (4.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Manchester City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Manchester City.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
63.62% ( -0.12) | 18.3% ( 0.01) | 18.08% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 65.1% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.28% ( 0.17) | 28.72% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.37% ( 0.21) | 49.63% ( -0.21) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.29% ( 0.02) | 8.7% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.04% ( 0.05) | 29.95% ( -0.05) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( 0.22) | 28.7% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.48% ( 0.28) | 64.52% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.06)1-0 @ 6.1% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 4.62% 4-0 @ 3.7% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.25% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.81% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.02)6-1 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 3.66% Total : 63.62% | 1-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 2.5% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.42% Total : 18.3% | 1-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 3.12% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.95% ( 0)Other @ 3.87% Total : 18.08% |
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