SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 48.98%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-0 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Manchester City |
26.58% ( 0) | 24.43% ( -0.03) | 48.98% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 55.09% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.9% ( 0.14) | 47.1% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.66% ( 0.13) | 69.34% ( -0.14) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.25% ( 0.08) | 31.74% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.83% ( 0.09) | 68.16% ( -0.09) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.71% ( 0.07) | 19.28% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.98% ( 0.11) | 51.02% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Manchester City |
| 1-0 @ 7.02% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.63% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.03% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.54% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.54% ( 0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 26.58% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.46% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.43% | 0-1 @ 10.07% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 9.51% ( 0)0-2 @ 8.29% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.22% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.55% ( 0)2-3 @ 3% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.15% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.09% Total : 48.98% |
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