SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 62.58%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Chelsea had a probability of 16.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for a Chelsea win it was 0-1 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Chelsea |
62.58% ( 0.24) | 20.85% ( -0.12) | 16.56% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 52.26% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.21% ( 0.3) | 43.78% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.83% ( 0.29) | 66.17% ( -0.29) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.6% ( 0.16) | 13.4% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.67% ( 0.33) | 40.32% ( -0.33) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.35% ( 0.03) | 39.65% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.67% ( 0.03) | 76.33% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-0 @ 10.73% 1-0 @ 10.67% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.45% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.03% Total : 62.58% | 1-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.59% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.85% | 0-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.99% Total : 16.57% |
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