Watford's distinct lack of a clinical finisher should be exposed by a staunch Arsenal defence on Sunday, although Hodgson's side will be aware that the Gunners are still prone to the odd mistake.
However, the Hornets have posted defeat after defeat at home recently and are facing an Arsenal side almost at the peak of their powers, so we can only envisage the visitors inching closer to the Champions League with all three points.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 61.17%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Watford had a probability of 17.04%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.08%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Watford win it was 1-0 (5.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
