Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 49.73%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 25.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.56%) and 0-2 (8.46%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.
