Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 38.48%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
