Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 43.43%. A draw had a probability of 31.9% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 24.69%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (7.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.08%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alaves in this match.
-0.48) 
0.21) 
