Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 39.6%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Racing de Santander had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.13%) and 2-1 (7.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.75%), while for a Racing de Santander win it was 0-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alaves would win this match.
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