Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 40.24%. A win for Malaga had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Malaga win was 1-0 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eibar would win this match.
