Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 37.63%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.99%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Las Palmas would win this match.
