While Lecce have found a way to pick up points on the road, and are a well-organised and settled side, Atalanta's recent prowess in the final third means that - even accounting for absences - they are the likeliest winners on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 63.43%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 15.88%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.96%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
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