While their visitors are clearly benefiting from empty midweeks, having failed to qualify for Europe last term, Roma were able to cruise through the latter stages of their Thursday night match after HJK's captain was sent off.
Therefore, the combination of home advantage and greater individual ability up front should decide a closely contested affair in the Giallorossi's favour.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 45.23%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 26.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for an Atalanta BC win it was 0-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
0.62) 
-0.17) 
