SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 56.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 20.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.91%) and 0-2 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spezia | Draw | Roma |
20.73% ( 0.01) | 22.46% ( -0.02) | 56.82% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 54.61% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.56% ( 0.08) | 44.44% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.19% ( 0.07) | 66.81% ( -0.07) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.57% ( 0.05) | 35.43% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.81% ( 0.05) | 72.19% ( -0.05) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.57% ( 0.03) | 15.42% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.74% ( 0.06) | 44.25% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spezia | Draw | Roma |
| 1-0 @ 5.67% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.5% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.94% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.9% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 20.73% | 1-1 @ 10.59% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.47% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.45% | 0-1 @ 10.21% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0)0-2 @ 9.55% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 6.17% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 5.95% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.88% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 2.78% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.5% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.08% ( 0)0-5 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 2.55% Total : 56.81% |
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