Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 37.95%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Benevento win was 0-1 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Perugia would win this match.
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