Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 48.83%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for SPAL had a probability of 23.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a SPAL win it was 0-1 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
