Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 54.3%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 21.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Mariupol win it was 0-1 (6.8%).
