Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 44.36%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 28.53% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.42%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
