SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 44.95%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 25.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.35%) and 1-2 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.06%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (10.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
25.89% ( 0.43) | 29.16% ( 0.14) | 44.95% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 41.29% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.34% ( -0.2) | 64.66% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.35% ( -0.14) | 83.65% ( 0.14) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.03% ( 0.28) | 41.97% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.59% ( 0.24) | 78.41% ( -0.24) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.15% ( -0.4) | 28.85% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.28% ( -0.49) | 64.72% ( 0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 5.67% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 4.56% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.16% Total : 25.89% | 1-1 @ 13.06% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 12.1% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 3.53% ( 0)Other @ 0.45% Total : 29.14% | 0-1 @ 15.05% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 9.35% ( -0.14)1-2 @ 8.12% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 3.88% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.47% Total : 44.95% |
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