SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 40.12%. A win for Danubio had a probability of 31.27% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Danubio win was 0-1 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Danubio |
40.12% ( -0.8) | 28.6% ( 0.39) | 31.27% ( 0.41) |
| Both teams to score 45.32% ( -0.94) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.03% ( -1.24) | 60.97% ( 1.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.03% ( -0.94) | 80.97% ( 0.93) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.27% ( -1.06) | 29.72% ( 1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.21% ( -1.31) | 65.78% ( 1.3) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.49% ( -0.36) | 35.5% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.72% ( -0.37) | 72.27% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 12.8% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.17)3-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.49% Total : 40.12% | 1-1 @ 13.25% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 10.55% ( 0.48)2-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.59% | 0-1 @ 10.92% ( 0.39) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.06% Total : 31.26% |
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