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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 36.29%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.72%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (11.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
35.47% ( 0.14) | 28.25% ( 0.13) | 36.29% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 47.06% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.84% ( -0.48) | 59.16% ( 0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.41% ( -0.38) | 79.59% ( 0.38) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.34% ( -0.15) | 31.66% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.93% ( -0.18) | 68.07% ( 0.18) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.86% ( -0.42) | 31.14% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.53% ( -0.49) | 67.47% ( 0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 11.33% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.52% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.89% Total : 35.46% | 1-1 @ 13.22% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.86% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.72% Total : 28.24% | 0-1 @ 11.5% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.72% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.02% Total : 36.29% |
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