SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Montevideo City Torque | 30 | -12 | 27 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 30 | -18 | 24 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 29 | -43 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 30 | 2 | 40 |
| 10 | Fenix | 29 | -4 | 39 |
| 11 | Albion | 30 | -16 | 33 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 50.24%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 21.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.72%) and 1-2 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%), while for a Cerrito win it was 1-0 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerrito | Draw | Fenix |
21.86% ( -0.04) | 27.9% ( -0.02) | 50.24% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 40.85% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.64% ( 0.02) | 63.36% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.28% ( 0.01) | 82.72% ( -0.01) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.88% ( -0.03) | 45.12% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.97% ( -0.02) | 81.03% ( 0.02) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.43% ( 0.03) | 25.57% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.56% ( 0.04) | 60.44% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerrito | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.32% ( -0)3-0 @ 0.97% ( -0)3-2 @ 0.9% ( -0)Other @ 0.85% Total : 21.86% | 1-1 @ 12.52% 0-0 @ 11.53% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.4% ( -0)Other @ 0.44% Total : 27.89% | 0-1 @ 15.73% 0-2 @ 10.72% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 8.54% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.88% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.88% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 50.23% |
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