SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 29 | -9 | 27 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 28 | -14 | 27 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 28 | -21 | 20 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 29 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Fenix | 28 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Albion | 29 | -14 | 33 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.1%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.14%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Fenix win was 0-1 (12.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerro Largo in this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Fenix |
36.1% ( 0.48) | 30.25% ( -0.2) | 33.65% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 41.45% ( 0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.1% ( 0.58) | 65.9% ( -0.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.49% ( 0.4) | 84.51% ( -0.4) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.23% ( 0.64) | 34.77% ( -0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.5% ( 0.67) | 71.5% ( -0.66) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.54% ( 0.12) | 36.46% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.76% ( 0.13) | 73.24% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 13.39% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.14% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 2.51% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.23% Total : 36.1% | 1-1 @ 13.51% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 12.67% ( -0.28)2-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.46% Total : 30.24% | 0-1 @ 12.79% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 6.82% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.45% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.92% Total : 33.65% |
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