SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Albion | 28 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 28 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 29 | -9 | 27 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nacional | 29 | 43 | 65 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 30 | 19 | 55 |
| 3 | Boston River | 28 | 10 | 49 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 52.17%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 20.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.04%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 1-0 (8.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Nacional |
20.84% ( 0.05) | 26.99% ( 0.13) | 52.17% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 41.86% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.6% ( -0.36) | 61.39% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.71% ( -0.27) | 81.29% ( 0.27) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.94% ( -0.16) | 45.06% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.02% ( -0.13) | 80.98% ( 0.13) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.2% ( -0.24) | 23.8% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.04% ( -0.34) | 57.96% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 8.55% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 0.85% Total : 20.84% | 1-1 @ 12.27% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 10.72% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.48% Total : 26.98% | 0-1 @ 15.39% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 11.04% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 8.81% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 5.29% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.22% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.33% Total : 52.16% |
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