Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 40.1%. A win for Cerrito had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Cerrito win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenix would win this match.
