Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.11%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Liverpool had a probability of 25.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.45%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Liverpool win it was 0-1 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
