SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | River Plate | 31 | 11 | 49 |
| 6 | Penarol | 30 | 9 | 49 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 30 | 4 | 48 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Montevideo City Torque | 30 | -12 | 27 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 31 | -19 | 24 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 30 | -45 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 66.76%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 11.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.81%) and 3-0 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Cerrito win it was 0-1 (5.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Cerrito |
66.76% ( -2.14) | 21.7% ( 0.87) | 11.53% ( 1.27) |
| Both teams to score 37.42% ( 1.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.09% ( -0.26) | 56.91% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.18% ( -0.21) | 77.82% ( 0.21) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.62% ( -0.8) | 16.38% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.98% ( -1.47) | 46.02% ( 1.47) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.75% ( 2.26) | 55.25% ( -2.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.97% ( 1.29) | 88.03% ( -1.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Cerrito |
| 1-0 @ 16.37% ( -0.28) 2-0 @ 14.81% ( -0.67)3-0 @ 8.93% ( -0.67)2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 5.3% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.42)4-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.1)5-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.2)Other @ 3.1% Total : 66.76% | 1-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.5) 0-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.24)Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.7% | 0-1 @ 5.37% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.33)0-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.22)Other @ 1.69% Total : 11.53% |
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