SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 24 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
| 16 | Godoy Cruz | 12 | -1 | 15 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Colon had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Colon win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Colon |
43.81% ( -0.04) | 26.13% ( 0.02) | 30.05% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 52.04% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.8% ( -0.05) | 52.2% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.09% ( -0.05) | 73.91% ( 0.04) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.3% ( -0.04) | 23.7% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.18% ( -0.06) | 57.82% ( 0.06) |
| Colon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.2% ( -0.02) | 31.8% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.77% ( -0.02) | 68.23% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Colon |
| 1-0 @ 10.84% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.95% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.81% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.3% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.75% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0)Other @ 2.8% Total : 43.8% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.13% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.13% | 0-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.12% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.72% 2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.89% ( 0)Other @ 2.79% Total : 30.05% |
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