Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 37.08%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.62%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (11.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.